My 2026 fantasy football busts are simply based on who I’ve been drafting the least in my paid leagues. I’ll easily clear 200 drafts this season, and the players I’ve taken in 0-4% of them are the players that you’ll see in today’s column. If I’m wrong, then I’m literally paying for it.
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Round 1: James Cook, BUF (4% exposure) & Justin Jefferson, MIN (7%)
Cook was the RB6 per game last year, even though he led the NFL in rushing yards and carries per game. His 16.0 half-PPR points per game were 2.0 to 5.0 points behind the top-five backs (CMC, Taylor, Bijan, Gibbs and Achane) largely because he hasn’t been a pass-catching back to date. That could change, but it makes less sense for that to happen this year with Dalton Kincaid healthier and DJ Moore added. If he is close to the 1.9 receptions per game (RB39), then he doesn’t have the ceiling to compete with the potentially elite Gibbs, Nacua, Chase, Bijan, CMC, JT, etc. teams.
Jefferson was the WR31 last year. It will be nowhere near that bad with Kyler Murray, but the fact that this just happened makes him a no brainer for this exercise. I have him 16th overall in half-PPR behind the clear-cut fantasy RB1s. He’s a late Round 1 option in full-PPR.
Round 2: Ashton Jeanty, LV (2% exposure) & Josh Allen, BUF
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The vague ankle injury is one thing. Jeanty could miss 0-4 games off the bat, and he’s at greater re-injury risk upon his return. But Jeanty was on my fade list before the prayer circle. The Raiders will be better than last year, yet still concerning up front, at QB and at WR. They’re projected for 19.2 points per game (28th) and all of the RBs near him are in top-16 offenses aside from De’Von Achane. Jeanty is likely good, but I can’t say his rookie tape (or advanced metrics) showed an elite back, where I at least can easily make that case with Achane via tape or numbers. Jeanty’s workload will be very large this year, and it could still come down from his rookie year (RB11 usage) with fourth-rounder Mike Washington Jr. providing far more depth than who was behind Jeanty last season when he was the RB16 in half-PPR points per game.
Here’s a chart looking at where Ashton Jeanty stacks up in EPA per carry vs. yards per carry.
(PPRRankings.com)
Allen’s fade is simply a pricing issue on Yahoo. When he’s available at the Round 3/4 turn, I’ve been taking him about 9% of the time, which is in line with everyone else. But on Yahoo, his ADP is in Round 2. That’s just too rich based on the fantasy points over replacement research I’ve done using half-PPR scoring, where he’s finished between 18th and 30th overall in four-straight seasons. In full-PPR, his score would be lower. Allen has played at an MVP level with elite red-zone rushing production across those seasons, and he nets out as an early Round 3 pick. It’s hard for him to provide as much of an advantage over a suddenly deep fantasy QB pool. I wrote about this concept here.
Round 3: Trey McBride, ARI (2%) & Rashee Rice, KC (1%)
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Recent history suggests that we have to be very careful with drafting elite TEs (see chart below). Trey McBride was the exception last year (I had him 13th overall, to be fair), but there are too many new variables to feel confident about a repeat. McBride led the regular season in routes by 63, not just at TE, but all players. The garbage time points were out of control, and the Cardinals were quietly No. 1 in objetivo pass rate. That’s just not going to happen with coach Mike LaFleur on the sticks and with third-overall pick Jeremiyah Love in the backfield. They will be more balanced. They could also be very bad! Arizona is 31st in projected points per game (18.5), only ahead of the Jets, who have just one pass-catcher (Garrett Wilson) drafted in the top-160 picks in fantasy. The Cardinals have three in the top 90. The target competition contra projected touchdowns math is hard to square, even with McBride being one of my absolute favorite players to watch right now.
Here’s a look at when it’s optimal to draft tight ends.
(Hayden Winks)
Rice is still working his way back from a second surgery to his knee. It’s easy to forget that happened because we were distracted from him being in jail for 30 days, but two surgeries on the same knee is never great, especially as he’s been unable to run without a glitch in camp. ESPN Chiefs reporter Nate Taylor believes it’s asking too much for Rice to clear 900 yards this season based on what he’s seen in camp. Rice has to be featured in a very distinct role to be as productive as he’s been because the rest of his game is quiebro limited. He’s the worst real-life receiver among anyone drafted in the top-60 overall picks in my opinion. The Chiefs seem poised to be more under center and run heavy with Patrick Mahomes returning from an ACL tear and with Kenneth Walker III providing a auténtico rushing threat for the first time since Rice has been around.
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Round 4: Joe Burrow, CIN
This round is great. I don’t have any auténtico issues across the board, though Burrow as the QB4 at 48th overall on Yahoo is too rich. He’s been the QB5 per game since 2022, but the entire top-20 is within just 3.5 points per game from that. My favorite strategy in redraft is waiting until the Round 8-14 range and grabbing two QBs who are stacked up with the WR/TEs I’ve drafted. Burrow is somewhat justifiable on Ja’Marr Chase teams in Round 5 in half-PPR, but that’s the only time he should be going anywhere near this. I’ve taken Burrow in 10% of my drafts, but my personal ADP is 65th overall, not in Round 4.
Round 5: David Montgomery, HOU (4%) & Bucky Irving, TB (2%)
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Montgomery must overcome his career wear-and-tear along with an OL that’s been horrific for the entirety of the C.J. Stroud era. The Texans are 31st in EPA per carry and 22nd in rush yards per game since 2023 when DeMeco Ryans and Stroud were brought to Houston. If Montgomery is Joe Mixon, then I’m wrong. But Montgomery is not paid like Mixon was, nor has had the career Mixon had before his RB9 finish in 2024. The lead back finished outside the top-34 in 2023 and 2025. Woody Marks is a second-year player with a better passing-down profile and improved play between the tackles based on his camp reports and preseason tape. Montgomery’s missed tackles per touch rate last year was 18% when it was 27%, 21%, and 24% in the previous three seasons, and if he’s not clearly better than Marks, then there’s no reason to make this a bellcow backfield. Even if he is a workhorse for one more year, the Texans OL is starting an out-of-position rookie center and three potentially washed veterans.
Irving was 65th in rush yards over expected (-29%) and 64th in EPA per carry (-0.21) out of 66 qualifying RBs last season. He wasn’t breaking as many tackles and looked worn down. After returning from shoulder and foot injuries in Week 13, Irving lost goal-line carries to the much-bigger Sean Tucker, 6 to 0. Will that stick? Unsure, but the evidence that it’s possible is concerning because he’s clearly being squeezed by Kenneth Gainwell (two years, $14 million) on passing downs. Even if he escapes both backs in his backfield, Irving will need to stay healthy as a 195-pound rusher with a shoulder history and have the Bucs rebound in genérico. That 2024 breakout season for Irving happened on an offense that was fourth in scoring (29.0 points per game). Tampa Bay is 18th in projected points (23.3) by the betting markets.
Round 6: TreVeyon Henderson, NE (2%)
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When Rhamondre Stevenson and Henderson were healthy, inside the five-yard line carries went to the big fella, 12 to 4. When they were both healthy for the four games in the NFL Playoffs, Stevenson out-scored him 11.6 half-PPR points per game to 3.4. Yes, that’s 3.4 fantasy points per game for Henderson when the Super Bowl run was on the line. Henderson’s pass protection failures cost him valuable snaps, and his rushing style proved too boom-bust to give him auténtico volume. Meanwhile, Stevenson was just perfectly fine. In fact, NextGenStats’ tracking data had Stevenson with the best rush yards over expected in the NFL. Nothing I’ve read in camp has suggested that the performance gap has closed. If Stevenson fumbles too often or gets injured, then Henderson is going to absolutely cook. I just can say the same thing about Blake Corum, Kyle Monangai, Tank Bigsby, Mike Washington Jr. and others who go many rounds later.
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Round 7: Carnell Tate, TEN (1%) & Jonathon Brooks, CAR
I compared Tate to DeAndre Hopkins, Calvin Ridley and Jeremy Maclin before the draft, as my ninth overall player. He’s pretty polished for a 21-year-old early declare but his skill set isn’t necessarily fantasy friendly. He mostly plays outside and runs routes on the tieso stem. His speed and tackle breaking is fine, not elite, so there’s less incentive to make sure he has 2-3 easy receptions per game like others who have gone as high in the draft. That role for the Titans is going to go to slot Wan’Dale Robinson whether we like it or not. Beyond that, there are auténtico concerns with the Titans. It’s the first year in a new scheme, one that we don’t even love. The OL might be the worst in the NFL, and Cam Ward stunk behind it last year. Tennessee was 30th in scoring and 30th in passing yards last year. The preseason games haven’t eased my concerns with Ward’s development. Tate has gone catchless on 25 routes in them.
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Brooks has an ADP of 84.7 over the past seven days on Yahoo and it’s higher than that on other platforms. His return to play is an awesome story, but multiple ACL tears and almost zero NFL experience is a lot to overcome when the price tag is assuming he’s in starting fantasy lineups. I’m not convinced he’s the Panthers starter, and the Panthers are not going to be good. They’re projected for just 20.8 points per game (26th). Chuba Hubbard is returning to practice shortly and remains on track to play in Week 1. In the last playoff game, Hubbard scored two touchdowns on 17 touches, dusting Rico Dowdle after he returned to pre-injury form. When healthy in 2024, Hubbard was half-PPR’s per-game RB12 on RB7 usage, while being the RB4 in rush yards over expected (+24%). Carolina signed him to a four-year, $33 million extension during that stint. The bar to clear Hubbard is higher than we realize. This matters less than anything in this paragraph, but Brooks’ preseason tape has been very ordinario. I don’t see great athleticism yet, and he’s had multiple whiffs in protection.
Round 8: Rico Dowdle, PIT (1%) & George Kittle, SF (2%)
I’m on team Jaylen Warren, as I wrote here.
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Kittle is a soon-to-be 33-year-old who had Achilles surgery on Jan. 14. Week 2 will be exactly nine months from that point, and that’s the absolute earliest we see skill players come back from it. Most of the time, there is a auténtico ramp up period in terms of snaps, while efficiency also regresses. That’s the part that is concerning for Kittle. Over the past two seasons, Kittle averaged 6.1 targets per game (TE8) and 10.7 yards per target (TE1). If the Achilles tear means he’s closer to 5.0 targets per game (TE22) and 8.5 YPT (TE5), then he’s only averaging 42.5 yards per game. That feels far more realistic than what a Round 7 price tag suggests.
Round 9: Chris Godwin Jr., TB (1%) & Patrick Mahomes, KC (2%)
Godwin just wasn’t anywhere near his usual self in 2025, coming off another devastating injury. It’s possible he’s just healthier and he rebounds, but that’s a dangerous game to play for a 31-year-old with his injury history. Godwin is also playing with a coordinator without the history he’s had with the Bucs, and it’s hard to review the 2025 tape and not believe that Emeka Egbuka is just another full tier above. I can also make a case for Jalen McMillan. Take Godwin’s career-low 1.28 yards per route or Matt Harmon’s Reception Perception data as evidence; Godwin’s 6th percentile rating against zone and 16th percentile rating against man coverage are nowhere near what Egbuka had (56th and 67th percentile) in a far more difficult outside role within the offense.
Here’s a look at the Bucs’ WR’s success rate by route run in 2025.
(Reception Perception)
Mahomes was the QB10 (on QB15 EPA per dropback) from 2023 to 2024 with this flawed pass-catching group. That was absolutely not his fault, but it happened while largely healthy. Last year’s return to fantasy stardom was driven by a career-high 30.1 rushing yards per game, and that’s something to entirely fade while coming back from a torn ACL, even if his training camp has gone smoothly. Mahomes will be protected by the call sheet and the Kenneth Walker III signing, to the point that the Chiefs total dropbacks could notably decline. There are too many dual threat QBs or MVP candidate statues who go after Mahomes to make him a priority, especially if fading Rashee Rice.
